Our strategic view

The world has unique opportunities to create unimaginable wealth, and our investments are founded on the firm belief that the world will grasp these opportunities. Every year 85 million people leave poverty as a result of this creativity. How is this possible?

 

We live in a shrinking world. The IT revolution and increasing trade deregulation make the world spin more smoothly. Outsourcing is made easier and less risky, boosting trade and wealth creation in the long run.

Trade is one of the most powerful growth engines in the world. Increasing trade and robust communication tools allow know-how to be spread far and wide. Fast. Emerging Markets capitalize on these developments.

Sometimes politicians tries to put a spanner in the works, but we believe that these kind of measures will fail, for the simple reason that trade always is beneficial for all parties involved.

Another reason behind continued successful global progress is the spread of capitalism and market economy. The global economy thereby enjoys better resource allocation, unleashing entrepreneurial power and creativity.

It is in this world of free trade and growth that many business opportunities emerge and it is here we have our strategic focus. We seize these opportunities by pursuing business in the following areas:

Invest in those emerging markets that are best suited to copy Western business models and promote market reforms, thus achieving faster growth at less risk. People in these regions are hungry for progress and eager to reach higher living standards. They are the greatest bene­ficiaries.

Invest in Asia, the centre of the biggest industrial­ization the world has ever witnessed. We’re of course talking about China. But also countries like Indonesia, Sri Lanka, the Philippines and Thailand. Low leverage in this region also creates opportunities for huge infrastructure investments that bring about huge productivity gains. We also invest in other parts of the world, such as Mexico, Israel, Kenya, Rwanda and Georgia for the same reasons. Countries that by releasing the forces of the free market, create possibilities to generate prosperity for the people.

There are however threats to these positive developments. Factors, such as protectionism, increased taxation on the wealth creators, labor and capital, as well as stricter regulations, more red tape and an unsound environmental debate, can soon plunge people back into poverty.

When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong.

Humphrey B. Neill: Art of Contrary Thinking (1954)

Tomorrow is a better place

At Dunross, we find joy and comfort in the fact that the world is slowly but surely becoming a better place to live in, and contrary to what many people believe, the world is not getting worse. Proof of this is the fact that 85 million people each year, through market economy and globalization, have left poverty during the past 15 years.

 

China is a good illustration of this progress of poverty reduction in the world. Although Dunross due to its non-existent democracy and non-robust institutional and legal framework, has chosen not to invest in China, the country has still managed to develop remarkably well. Say what you will about the problems in China, but poverty has been dramatically reduced, and in our opinion, it is a result of the gradual Chinese implementation of market economy. They are now also planning to implement a new round of market reforms, which naturally would be another step towards greater prosperity, even if one has to remember that China’s population is ageing fast.

 

 

Hence, despite continued implementations of further market reforms, China will structurally approach a slower growth rate than historically, maybe even as low as 4–5 percent. Having said that, no one can deny what they have accomplished in the past decade. And yes, they do have major environmental problems, but don’t forget that it is incredibly difficult to address these environmental problems without first lifting a large part of the Chinese population out of poverty. Compare this to the former communist Soviet Union, with its totali­tarian regime, where the environ-mental cata­s­trophes were of gigantic proportions. Therefore, we are convinced that the big environ-mental issues now facing China will be addressed and solved.

Below, please find some facts about our world of today that hopefully will inspire you and give you a more optimistic outlook on the current state of our world, and instill more confidence in the ability of the human race to progress:

 

  • The number of people killed in wars since the Second World War when 300 people per 100 000 died, has fallen to 10 in every 100 000 during the 1970s, and is currently down to 1 person in every 100 000.
  • The explosive growth of the global popu­lation that has been a big concern for many people for many years also seems to be moving towards a solution, even though we are living much longer and standards of living have dramatically improved.
  • The average life span in the world is continuously rising.
  • Between 1920–1980, on average, 395 people per 100 000 died of hunger each year. Today, that same figure is fewer than 3 people per 100 000. Farming and food production – even per capita – is rising rapidly in the world, and has nearly doubled since the 1980s. (OECD-FAO)
  • Illiteracy in the world is falling, which is leading to better communication and better functioning societies (UNESCO)
  • The world is increasingly being governed by democratically elected leaders. This strengthens participation in society and reduces the risks of war.
  • Between 1920–1929, 241 people per one million died each year due to weather-related accidents globally, compared with 5 per one million a year over the last ten years.
  • In 1975, the average car travelled 21 km per gallon of petrol compared with 42 km today, and the fuel efficiency is accelerating, with new cars achieving up to 100 km per gallon.
  • Google and the internet are for free. 20 years ago, the internet barely existed at all. An infinite number of other inventions are also free, or have become far better, at prices that are just a fraction of what they once were.
  • The same applies to the cost of making a phone call, or to travel by air, imagine how much further you can reach for a dollar today by air or phone since deregulations.

 

The list of positive developments is much longer, and yes, the world faces many challenges and significant problems still remain in many parts of the world, particularly in Africa and the Middle East. However, the point is that humans are fantastic creatures that constantly overcome such new challenges. Take the energy issue for instance; have electricity costs ever been as low as they are today? And, soon solar energy will sometimes compete in terms of efficiency with all other forms of energy production.

Not bad, eh?